Threats to UK Space Capabilities: Insights from the National Risk Register

Modern society and defence are critically dependent on space systems. The UK’s 2023 National Risk Register highlights three major space-related risks, up from one in 2020, reflecting heightened reliance and vulnerability. This report, commissioned by the UK Space Agency and developed by CGI, explores deliberate disruption threats to UK space assets and services.

Findings

  • Failure modes identified: Nine critical ways a mission can fail (eg physical destruction, launch failure, payload failure) with three classed as Critical Impact.
  • Threat categories: Twelve mapped threats including physical (ASAT, directed energy), electromagnetic (jamming, spoofing), and cyber (data corruption, seizure of control).
  • Most likely risks: Electromagnetic and cyber threats rank higher in likelihood than physical threats due to lower cost, easier access, and attribution difficulties.
  • Sector feedback: Industry stakeholders confirm the link segment is the most vulnerable to cyber and electromagnetic attacks. Responses align with National Risk Register scoring.

Analysis

  • Electromagnetic and cyber-attacks are already occurring, with downlink jamming assessed as expected (highly likely to occur regularly).
  • Physical threats, though catastrophic in effect, are less likely due to the escalation risk of overt military actions.
  • The threat landscape reflects the geopolitical “grey zone”, where coercive activities below the threshold of armed conflict create sustained risk.

Find out more about the risk of deliberate disruption to UK space systems and space-based services in our report.